Valuing crypto assets relies on accurately forecasting growth, and understanding the market size is crucial for this. In this regard, we have identified three key pillars of addressable markets that help assess growth potential and navigate market size forecasting.
This article is part of Sygnum’s Valuing crypto assets investment research report.
How to forecast growth
Crypto assets represent investments in early-stage transformational technology where the
opportunity lies in medium- to long-term growth.
Any valuation methodology ultimately hinges on forecasting this growth. Assessing the fair value of tokens also involves modelling how projects capture value and how this value is transferred to tokenholders, but the starting point in all cases is understanding the size of the opportunity.
Addressable markets
As with valuing traditional businesses, assessing the size of the addressable market is the first point of reference for valuations.
For example, a decentralised exchange that trades crypto assets will see its market grow as:
1. The crypto market grows in size.
2. The preference for decentralised exchanges over centralised exchanges increases.
3. Traditional financial assets are tokenised and traded on crypto exchanges.
Forecasts by various research and consulting organisations provide reference points to establish a reasonable range (best/worst-case scenarios) of what the size of the market may be. The below example of cross-border payment flows is one component of assessing the size of the global payments market, which in turn is a starting point for assessing the potential for cryptocurrencies in payments as well as for projects and decentralised applications that facilitate digital payments.
GLOBAL CROSS-BORDER PAYMENTS FLOWS (USD TR)
As the crypto industry creates new markets, the uncertainties around forecasting the market size can be significant. But parallels can still be drawn by looking at what service or activity the new market might displace or most closely resemble.
When crypto businesses aim to take market share from traditional counterparts, this may be by offering a lower cost alternative or a more focused solution that better serves a need.
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