• Team Sygnum

The Ethereum road will turn into a super highway with higher traffic and lower toll charges

by Martin Burgherr, Chief Clients Officer at Sygnum

When talking about Ethereum I often face the question: "but what is the value - isn't it just speculation?" To answer this, here is an explanation you probably didn't come across yet.

Ethereum is infrastructure and infrastructure is difficult to understand - even in the traditional world (who directly invests in a powerplant or in a highway?). But still traditional infrastructure is less abstract than the economies of a blockchain.

Read more: Staking: An opportunity in a yield-restricted financial ecosystem

Let's look at Ethereum like a road. The road itself doesn't generate a cashflow - but still we wouldn't consider it useless. We can monetize the road - if people are willing to pay a road toll. In its early days Ethereum ways a functioning road but not many people used it. Over the last 7 years many use cases emerged, such as Decentralized Finance, Non-Fungible-Tokens, Metaverse, etc. Given the Ethereum "road" is still quite a narrow one - people had to pay a lot in order to be allowed to drive on it. Price of Ethereum shot up to 4800$. Some people stopped using it and drove on cheaper roads - this is how competitor blockchain like Solana, Cardano, Tezos, Near emerged. However, many of those people would still prefer to use the Ethereum road - as this road is the most secure/shortest distance in their view.

Realizing this issue of high road tolls and people going elsewhere, Ethereum is undergoing multiple upgrades such as change to proof of stake, sharding etc. This will turn the road into a highway - with lower tolls than the old road.

My hypothesis is that this will lead to:

  • Traffic on Ethereum will exponentially increase. People driving on other roads today will come back. A highway will allow for new use cases (i.e. trucks using the highway instead of just cars). In simple terms: Ethereum will gain market share.

  • Like traffic increases (doubled in Switzerland over the last 50 years) the traffic on blockchains will also increase. Many players globally realize the potential of Blockchain and are using or plan using this technology in the future. However, like we've seen with the internet, social media etc. this will not go at the pace of car traffic - the traffic on the blockchain will increase exponentially (and historically already did).

So we will probably have x 1'000 or x 100'000 the amount of users (traffic) on the Ethereum blockchain as we have right now. People will pay a lower toll - but if we assume a 90% lower toll with 100'000% user growth - the network will still be 100 times the value of today.

Read more: Why institutions are eyeing blockchain’s biggest technological upgrade

In the last year people paid 3‘000‘000 Ethereum (road tolls) - that’s more than 4bn$ at current valuation and more than 15bn$ at All Time High valuation. This x100 - 🚀.

So why did it crash this year? Road traffic in Switzerland increased every year in the last 50 years, except in 2020! Can you guess why? COVID! Ethereum doesn't have COVID - but it caught a cough called inflation.


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